Potent Storm in the East Could Bring Snow to Finish
Written by MarcAnthony Ramos
Last updated 12/11/2023, 2:34:21 AM
Over on the East Coast, we have a new storm that will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for coastal flooding later today into Monday morning–that could end as accumulating snow North & West of NYC. Talk about weather whiplash! So how much rain are we expecting? What is the timing? Where will the strongest winds be? We’ll explain everything you need to know about this storm below.
Precipitation Totals: This storm has the potential to drop a few inches of liquid in a short amount of time which could create a greater risk of flooding. NYC is expected to get around 2 inches from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning, with the brunt of the storm coming Sunday night. New Haven, CT could be getting upwards of 3” with even higher totals into Southern New England. Currently, it looks like the heaviest rainfall is North and East of NYC with Long Island and Connecticut receiving totals between 3-5” depending on where the line sets up. This has the potential to cause the highest amount of rain in a two-day period since the remnants of Ophelia caused massive flooding issues in late September.
Timing: We’ve already gotten quite a drenching in the last few hours around NYC and more is definitely on the way. Figure a small break in the coverage moving right over NYC around 4-5pm EST with light rain and drizzle. Wave 1 of this heavier rain without much wind should be over by sunset. However, another batch will be rolling through the area into the evening and overnight hours. With the exception of heavier embedded storms within the light rain, in Northern New Jersey, Jersey Shore, and Eastern Long Island, most of the heavier activity should wait until around 8-9pm. By then, mixed wintry precipitation will be entering the highest elevations of the Poconos and Catskills, but heavier rain everywhere else. Winds will already be freshening out of the S/SSE, gusting near 40mph on portions of Eastern LI, 35mph on the Jersey Shore, and up to 25mph everywhere else even as early as sunset, but will really start cranking from NYC eastward by 7-8pm EST where we could get some gusts up to 50mph and beyond. The strongest winds will be out by daybreak but there could still be occasionally strong gusts which could make 40s in the daytime feel like 30s. But back to precipitation, moderate to heavy rainfall will last throughout the night, changing over to snow in the Poconos and Catskills, and even changing over to snow N/W of I-287 in New Jersey and N of I-84 in the Mid Hudson Valley of NY. The whole system should move out of here by noon in NYC, with still gusts occasionally hitting 30-35mph and temperatures falling to near freezing under clearing skies heading into Tuesday morning. So in short for the NYC area, Wave #1 of some heavy moisture which saw about an inch in New York’s busiest airport–JFK and about a third of an inch in Central Park, is just about complete, a small lull that lasts into the early evening hours will provide a brief respite and drying to start clearing out the puddles that formed. Another onslaught, however, will start in a few hours lasting into the overnight with wintry precipitation starting in the mountains and moving to NW NJ and upstate NY before finishing in the late morning hours tomorrow as the system spins out into the Atlantic. Boston could be approaching 3 inches with this system, something that Boston hasn’t seen since July 29th (3.07”). Wind gusts in Boston could reach near 50mph with the front coming through early in the
morning, with the Cape experiencing the worst winds, perhaps 60+ mph by late Monday morning. The Cape, however, will receive less rainfall than inland areas, only tacking on about an inch, but the winds will be whipping.
Alerts & Watches/Warnings: A wind advisory is in effect for many areas around the area, mainly to the AM rush for gusts of up to 50mph possible. A high wind warning is in effect in Eastern LI for gusts up to 60mph and for areas near Cape Cod in MA to the late morning hours. There is a flood watch for the entire area where 2-3” is expected but up to 3-5” is possible on Long Island and Southern CT, with localized amounts of up to 6”. This is a very dangerous system with lots of water possible to fall. Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
Snowfall: Lastly, some snow is expected with the ushering in of much colder air behind the front. The Poconos and Catskills are the clear jackpot winners of snowfall with 6”+ in the highest elevations, possibly 3-5” near those areas. The Berkshires and NY counties closest near the state-line of Massachusetts could see anywhere from 3-8”, all elevation dependent according to a Winter Weather Advisory issued by the NWS. NE Pennsylvania could see 1-4” but upwards of that at elevations above 1500’. North and West of I-287, and the NW hills of New Jersey could see a slushy inch or two before it all comes to an end. A blustery chilly day is in store for Monday with temperatures in the 40s with clearing skies but feeling more like the 30s.
Overall: Heavy rain later this evening, into the overnight will cause further flooding. Allow extra time to travel for the AM rush tomorrow, where things could be slippery due to temperatures near freezing in Western MA, upstate NY, and the Poconos/Catskills. Large puddles and potential flooding on roads could be a big issue as well as the winds near coastal areas could push water onto the shorelines. A very nasty day in terms of weather for the Northeast and the drying will commence by noontime on Monday. A calm week of weather is to follow for the region before another system could impact our weather in about a week’s time. Until then enjoy calmer and slightly above average conditions.